When I am in a low state, nothing turns my mood around quicker than a new discovery or re-discovery.
There is a book out now called "The Fred Factor". It's great. It is all about thriving in life versus just getting through life. To describe it in Mormon speak, it is about magnifying life instead of just experiencing it.
Fred is a postman. He gets to know the author of the book by introducing himself personally at the author's door the first day the author moves into Fred's route area. He then outlines a few suggestions for keeping his personal information safe and his home secure when he is out of town. He also offers to take note of the future travel plans of the author so he can bundle the mail and deliver it upon his return.
Fred enjoys living. He thrives because he creates value despite not being paid for it and he really cares about people. This is success.
It dawned on me (or really re-dawned on me) that as long as I focus on things I can't control I will not be happy. I can not control what happens in this real estate market or whether market conditions favor my efforts to put deals together that will close. I can control expanding my relationships and influence with the players in the market. I can control working to better understand how people communicate and how to sincerely connect with them and how to influence them. These are the things that really matter anyway.
Last night I found a web-site that proclaims that acheivement is 15% knowledge and 85% relationships. If my primary purpose and objective is learning how to expand my influence with others then I can absolutely thrive regardless the market conditions.
We can constantly re-invent ourselves, our outlooks and look at our purpose in new a creative ways. The main point is to keep ourselves full of hope and faith living true to our nature and sharing the best of who we are with others in a helpful manner.
Monday, December 03, 2007
Sunday, December 02, 2007
Christmas Coming
Dane has been singing "Deck the halls with thousand collies... falalalala..." He thinks those are the words and I'm not going to dispute it. Especially since we don't have many halls in our house and we certainly don't have hollie (sp?). What is hollie?
Here's how we've been 'decking' -- Meagan bought a very large quantity of large and small marshmallows and big round peppermints. I am told these will form layers in a large clear glass vase-like thing with a lid that looks like George Jetson's boy's hat. Tree and lights are still pending my initiation.
Missionary work takes a lot of faith. So does working in sales. I am enjoying work: the challenge, the freedon, the potential rewards, etc. To be a good missionary you have to be confidant in your message and be willing to fearlessly talk with anyone. In sales, you have to be confidant in your product or service and be willing to fearlessly build and maintain good relationships with people.
As a follow up to my speculation about the shadow market from last post, the following is my revised opinion:
I think it is likely a good portion of the properties going through foreclosure are passing through the hands of investors and a good portion of those are likely becoming rental units. While the ongoing forclosure wave is adding supply to the single-family rental pool (shadow market) it is likely that the folks losing their homes to foreclosure are going to end up renting a home-so the net effect is probably neglible.
This means population, income and job growth could be more important factors on future rent growth than the size of the shadow market... Job growth has been on a decline over the last several quarters and population growth usually follows job growth pretty closely. Interest rates are still low and have the potential for going lower at a time when homes are becoming cheaper which isn't blocking people from buying new homes. Rent growth and vacancies in multi-family housing will likely be weaker than in the recent past looking forward.
Here's how we've been 'decking' -- Meagan bought a very large quantity of large and small marshmallows and big round peppermints. I am told these will form layers in a large clear glass vase-like thing with a lid that looks like George Jetson's boy's hat. Tree and lights are still pending my initiation.
Missionary work takes a lot of faith. So does working in sales. I am enjoying work: the challenge, the freedon, the potential rewards, etc. To be a good missionary you have to be confidant in your message and be willing to fearlessly talk with anyone. In sales, you have to be confidant in your product or service and be willing to fearlessly build and maintain good relationships with people.
As a follow up to my speculation about the shadow market from last post, the following is my revised opinion:
I think it is likely a good portion of the properties going through foreclosure are passing through the hands of investors and a good portion of those are likely becoming rental units. While the ongoing forclosure wave is adding supply to the single-family rental pool (shadow market) it is likely that the folks losing their homes to foreclosure are going to end up renting a home-so the net effect is probably neglible.
This means population, income and job growth could be more important factors on future rent growth than the size of the shadow market... Job growth has been on a decline over the last several quarters and population growth usually follows job growth pretty closely. Interest rates are still low and have the potential for going lower at a time when homes are becoming cheaper which isn't blocking people from buying new homes. Rent growth and vacancies in multi-family housing will likely be weaker than in the recent past looking forward.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Real Estate
It is exciting to see a real free economic market in full correction. The 3rd Quarter Case-Shiller home price index shows arizona as having year over year value declines close to 9%. Month to month declines nationally show an accelerating trend in home price depreciation--this means we are still picking up speed on our way down to the bottom of this market. For all prudent and patient consumers out there this is great news. For the would-be first time home buyer recently priced out of the market, this is good news. Frankly, it is good news for just about everyone and I think we will give back all of the 50% gain we had from '04-'05 and then some.
Personally, I am very interested in what will happen to rental rates in the next 24 months. Recently, apartments have shown some weakness in rent growth (read: no rent growth over teh last quarter) and rising vacancies and concessions (discounts and deals offered to lure renters). Typically, these don't disappear overnight, but here's why I'm not that worried:
Price is a function of supply and demand. In this case we are talking about the rental price or rate (ie. economic rents--a combination of market rents less concessions). When supply is added to a market with constant demand, the rents landlords can charge will decrease. Recently we have seen additional rental housing supply dumped into the market in two forms: broken condo deals and investors renting out houses.
Over the past few years, hundreds or even thousands of apartment units were removed from the rental supply because developers planned to convert them into condos. Many of these projects went belly up halfway through the selling period. So... supply was taken out of the market (when renters were booted in preparation for selling the condo) and then dumped back into the market.
The other market supply contributing factor to flat rents and rising concessions is the increased availability of single family homes for rent. As investors find it increasingly difficult to sell vacant homes, many are resorting to renting the home hoping for a better market 12 months from now. Single family homes and condos are a substitute for traditional apartment living and could be considered an economic substitute--drawing renters out of apartments. Essentially, this factor has increased available rental supply, putting downward pressure on rents and contributing to the weakness in vacancies and concessions (free microwave, 2 months free, etc.)
Where we go from here:
The surge in single family homes for rent and the failed condo conversions reverting back to apartments is commonly referred to as the Shadow Market.
I think the shadow market is about as large as it will be in this cycle. My opinion is that the failed condo deals are already in lease-up and will be fully occupied within the next 3-6 months. I also think it is likely the investors who have decided to 'ride out the storm' have already put their houses in the rental pool.
I also think that most of the home buyers in this marketplace are buying homes to live in, not for investment purposes. So, although we are still at the front end of a foreclosure Tsunami in Phoenix and in the nation, I think these homes will largely be sold to individuals who will truly be able to afford the payments and who plan to live in the homes. Some distressed foreclosures may wind up in the hands of investors but my hunch is that this activity will not have a net increase affect on the available homes for rent in the marketplace.
It will take a few years for the shadow market to return to historically normal levels (whatever that is...) because many investors will be able to supplement their investment home mortgages and will do that instead of going through foreclosure, and here is my point:
THE APARTMENT MARKET IS THE BRIGHT SPOT over the next few years. Specifically, new apartment construction. Historical data shows the Valley is far from being 'over-built' relative to multi-family product. It is also safe to say that the thousands that will loose their homes to foreclosure are going to return to the renter pool--thus increasing demand for rental housing. A dissipation of the shadow market and the return of renters to apartments will play out over the next five or so years WHICH WILL CAUSE HEALTHY RENT GROWTH AND LOW VACANCIES.
This is my opinion and I could be wrong. I am interested in any feedback or opinions in support or in contradiction. Thanks, Mark.
Personally, I am very interested in what will happen to rental rates in the next 24 months. Recently, apartments have shown some weakness in rent growth (read: no rent growth over teh last quarter) and rising vacancies and concessions (discounts and deals offered to lure renters). Typically, these don't disappear overnight, but here's why I'm not that worried:
Price is a function of supply and demand. In this case we are talking about the rental price or rate (ie. economic rents--a combination of market rents less concessions). When supply is added to a market with constant demand, the rents landlords can charge will decrease. Recently we have seen additional rental housing supply dumped into the market in two forms: broken condo deals and investors renting out houses.
Over the past few years, hundreds or even thousands of apartment units were removed from the rental supply because developers planned to convert them into condos. Many of these projects went belly up halfway through the selling period. So... supply was taken out of the market (when renters were booted in preparation for selling the condo) and then dumped back into the market.
The other market supply contributing factor to flat rents and rising concessions is the increased availability of single family homes for rent. As investors find it increasingly difficult to sell vacant homes, many are resorting to renting the home hoping for a better market 12 months from now. Single family homes and condos are a substitute for traditional apartment living and could be considered an economic substitute--drawing renters out of apartments. Essentially, this factor has increased available rental supply, putting downward pressure on rents and contributing to the weakness in vacancies and concessions (free microwave, 2 months free, etc.)
Where we go from here:
The surge in single family homes for rent and the failed condo conversions reverting back to apartments is commonly referred to as the Shadow Market.
I think the shadow market is about as large as it will be in this cycle. My opinion is that the failed condo deals are already in lease-up and will be fully occupied within the next 3-6 months. I also think it is likely the investors who have decided to 'ride out the storm' have already put their houses in the rental pool.
I also think that most of the home buyers in this marketplace are buying homes to live in, not for investment purposes. So, although we are still at the front end of a foreclosure Tsunami in Phoenix and in the nation, I think these homes will largely be sold to individuals who will truly be able to afford the payments and who plan to live in the homes. Some distressed foreclosures may wind up in the hands of investors but my hunch is that this activity will not have a net increase affect on the available homes for rent in the marketplace.
It will take a few years for the shadow market to return to historically normal levels (whatever that is...) because many investors will be able to supplement their investment home mortgages and will do that instead of going through foreclosure, and here is my point:
THE APARTMENT MARKET IS THE BRIGHT SPOT over the next few years. Specifically, new apartment construction. Historical data shows the Valley is far from being 'over-built' relative to multi-family product. It is also safe to say that the thousands that will loose their homes to foreclosure are going to return to the renter pool--thus increasing demand for rental housing. A dissipation of the shadow market and the return of renters to apartments will play out over the next five or so years WHICH WILL CAUSE HEALTHY RENT GROWTH AND LOW VACANCIES.
This is my opinion and I could be wrong. I am interested in any feedback or opinions in support or in contradiction. Thanks, Mark.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
"Whadt?"
Drew's new word is "Whadt?" He says this when you say, "Hey Drewbie!" He still uses "No" as the standard response to any question you ask him. Especially when he means "Yes" which when told to say it he pronounces "SssSSyeehh".
Drew's hearing checked out as totally normal. Rule that out as to why his speech development is slow. Despite being slow to walk and talk, Drew is certainly not slow in his friendly demeanor. Yesterday at the McCormick-Stillman train park on Indian Bend he was practically waving non-stop: both while riding on the train and when the train passed with others in it.
I ran a 7 minute mile yesterday and just about died doing it. I once almost held that pace for 26.2 miles... It seems like almost a lifetime ago now. I'm going running in the morning again. Another week of a mile a morning and then I might go to 2.
Thanks to Mom and Dad for coming to Dane's TBall game Saturday! He was happy you were there.
Love you all. Mark.
Drew's hearing checked out as totally normal. Rule that out as to why his speech development is slow. Despite being slow to walk and talk, Drew is certainly not slow in his friendly demeanor. Yesterday at the McCormick-Stillman train park on Indian Bend he was practically waving non-stop: both while riding on the train and when the train passed with others in it.
I ran a 7 minute mile yesterday and just about died doing it. I once almost held that pace for 26.2 miles... It seems like almost a lifetime ago now. I'm going running in the morning again. Another week of a mile a morning and then I might go to 2.
Thanks to Mom and Dad for coming to Dane's TBall game Saturday! He was happy you were there.
Love you all. Mark.
Friday, November 09, 2007
Dog
This is a picture of an actual dog I found on the internet. It was entered into an Ugliest Dog contest...
Sunday, November 04, 2007
Halloween
Dane hustled and had a good, positive attitude at his T-ball game yesterday—a marked improvement over last week’s slow sulking and wandering over to me several times during the game. Dane and Drew had a complete blast on Halloween. It was definitely the high point of the week. We toured them around the block in the wagon. Drew was more interested in making new friends than getting candy and he left his Woody hat on the entire time. 
At one house the lady who answered was holding a small dog (ankle-biter variety). Drew kissed that dog at least 4 times and wouldn’t stop talking with the lady and wouldn’t turn away from the house after several good-bye’s. Drew continues to approach complete strangers with hugs and love. A week ago at a fall festival in one of our neighborhood parks he climbed into the lap of a girl sitting on the ground who looked about 16 years old. I had to pick him up eventually because he wouldn’t get up.
Dane really enjoyed the Charlie Brown play last night as well. He recognized Thomas in the dancing blanket costume. He kept asking if Lucy was really mad or just pretending. He also kept reminding me we don’t say ‘stupid’. He had fun.
I ran Weds-Friday this last week. 1 mile per day. I am committed to doing it tomorrow morning as well. It makes a big difference in my day. It’s easier to focus and work hard when I feel I have already accomplished something great (running 1 mile is a great feat for me at this point.)
Setting up the land division at ARA is coming along fine. Mostly research up front… I do have a developer driving a site in NE Mesa tomorrow and will likely write an offer for the property. It’s nice having all the tools I need, the contacts of seasoned brokers to leverage and a lot of room to do the job the way I think it should be done. I am happy with the situation.
Life gives us a return based on our investment in it. Reading the scriptures daily, reading other good books, running and eating good help keep our saw sharp which helps us produce more (work, service, etc.) Also, there are no short cuts in life. I sit near a 24 year old researcher at work who wants to fast track his path to success. My advice to him was to look at a 5-10 year picture instead of a 12-24 month picture. There are no shortcuts to big results. Stephen will be a partner in a prestigious law firm someday because he is paying the price right now.
All for now. Enjoy the pictures.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Woody and Buzz
Meagan has been having some lower abdominal pain on the left side following a recent mis-carriage. Friday she went in for an ultrasound and a mass was discovered near her left ovary. Based on her blood work levels now, she is definitely not pregnant and the doctors said the mass does not appear to be related to the recent mis-carriage. She is going in tomorrow for the doctor to determine whether they should biopsy and/or remove the mass. Prayers requested (maybe more for her nerves than for anything life-threatening).
Dane is Buzz Lightyear and Drew is Woody. Drew spent most of the 75 minutes (I was solo with the kids most of the time, that’s why I know it was 75 minutes) at a Saturday Halloween party throwing his oversized cowboy hat like a Frisbee across the gym and then chasing it down.
Dane had his second T-ball game yesterday and did well despite being sick from some recent immunizations and a nasal flu spray Thursday.
Meagan and I went to the ASU v. CAL game last night (GO DEVILS!). ASU is ranked in the top 5 nationally and is one of only 5 times in the nation that is undefeated. We face Oregon in Oregon next week and I think it will be our toughest game of the year. Oregon is also ranked very high nationally and just beat USC yesterday. If we beat Oregon we could have a serious shot at even a national championship game!
Just over a year ago I saw an advertisement for new US Gov’t gold minted coins. The newspaper ad I saw was paid for by the US Treasury and it explained the coins were one once in weight and 99.99% pure. You can buy and sell them on any given day for that day’s spot price of gold. I bought 5 of them and paid around $625 each. Since that time the dollar has been losing ground against most other foreign currencies and fear of a recession is wide-spread. People buy gold as a hedge against recession and a falling dollar. I just checked and now my coins are worth $780 each. It was pure luck on my part they went up in value instead of down but it has shown me the value of diversification in investments. That’s my show and tell for the week.
Read your scriptures every day and pray always. I was reminded at church today that the quality of my joy in life is directly proportionate to the quality, frequency and sincerity of my daily prayers. Labor in prayer. Love, Mark.
Dane is Buzz Lightyear and Drew is Woody. Drew spent most of the 75 minutes (I was solo with the kids most of the time, that’s why I know it was 75 minutes) at a Saturday Halloween party throwing his oversized cowboy hat like a Frisbee across the gym and then chasing it down.
Dane had his second T-ball game yesterday and did well despite being sick from some recent immunizations and a nasal flu spray Thursday.
Meagan and I went to the ASU v. CAL game last night (GO DEVILS!). ASU is ranked in the top 5 nationally and is one of only 5 times in the nation that is undefeated. We face Oregon in Oregon next week and I think it will be our toughest game of the year. Oregon is also ranked very high nationally and just beat USC yesterday. If we beat Oregon we could have a serious shot at even a national championship game!
Just over a year ago I saw an advertisement for new US Gov’t gold minted coins. The newspaper ad I saw was paid for by the US Treasury and it explained the coins were one once in weight and 99.99% pure. You can buy and sell them on any given day for that day’s spot price of gold. I bought 5 of them and paid around $625 each. Since that time the dollar has been losing ground against most other foreign currencies and fear of a recession is wide-spread. People buy gold as a hedge against recession and a falling dollar. I just checked and now my coins are worth $780 each. It was pure luck on my part they went up in value instead of down but it has shown me the value of diversification in investments. That’s my show and tell for the week.
Read your scriptures every day and pray always. I was reminded at church today that the quality of my joy in life is directly proportionate to the quality, frequency and sincerity of my daily prayers. Labor in prayer. Love, Mark.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Quick Family Update
A quick update on the Mark and Meagan Brower family:
Today we had the primary program at church. I sat with my Valiant 9 class and Dane sat with the Sunbeams on the stand. The program was wonderful. One of the little girls just older than Dane in junior primary has a small-sounding but very loud singing voice. When the director held up the picture of a lion (meaning to sing louder) the program was transformed into a soloist production with a choir singing backup for the little girl. It was very funny and everyone in the congregation enjoyed a good laugh over it.
We went to Shnepf Farms on Thursday as a family and had a very good time. The $12/person price and drive out there is worth it. Dane was brave enough to ride the newest attraction: a roller coaster. He was also quite brave riding the spooky train ride. This year I changed Drew’s diaper on a hay bale instead of in a grassy field. The result was similar (wet skin + dry hay or grass = big mess). The night ended in fireworks and allergies (for me) and it was a blast.
Dane has started T-ball. His games are every Saturday morning (next Sat. 11 a.m. at a park ¼ mi. north of Guadalupe east of Power Road). He was one of the only kids to hit the ball into the outfield during the game yesterday and he seems to really enjoy playing. We had to visit a couple different stores to find a left-handed glove that fit just right. I think his Mom hopes he becomes a star ‘south-paw’ pitcher some day.
Yesterday our neighborhood threw a Fall Festival—complete with music and bouncy castles and food. We followed that up with a trunk or treat/chili bake party with our ward at the building. It has been quite a whirlwind of a week, but also a lot of fun.
Drew seems to be making some modest progress with his speech. This last week we took him to speech therapy for the first time. Dane has learned to ride his big wheel so fast that he can kick the back end out when rounding a corner. Don’t tell his Mom, but I think we may have another Brower that has the need for speed!
That’s all for now. Sorry for not calling as much as I should to check up on everyone. Love, Mark and Meagan.
Today we had the primary program at church. I sat with my Valiant 9 class and Dane sat with the Sunbeams on the stand. The program was wonderful. One of the little girls just older than Dane in junior primary has a small-sounding but very loud singing voice. When the director held up the picture of a lion (meaning to sing louder) the program was transformed into a soloist production with a choir singing backup for the little girl. It was very funny and everyone in the congregation enjoyed a good laugh over it.
We went to Shnepf Farms on Thursday as a family and had a very good time. The $12/person price and drive out there is worth it. Dane was brave enough to ride the newest attraction: a roller coaster. He was also quite brave riding the spooky train ride. This year I changed Drew’s diaper on a hay bale instead of in a grassy field. The result was similar (wet skin + dry hay or grass = big mess). The night ended in fireworks and allergies (for me) and it was a blast.
Dane has started T-ball. His games are every Saturday morning (next Sat. 11 a.m. at a park ¼ mi. north of Guadalupe east of Power Road). He was one of the only kids to hit the ball into the outfield during the game yesterday and he seems to really enjoy playing. We had to visit a couple different stores to find a left-handed glove that fit just right. I think his Mom hopes he becomes a star ‘south-paw’ pitcher some day.
Yesterday our neighborhood threw a Fall Festival—complete with music and bouncy castles and food. We followed that up with a trunk or treat/chili bake party with our ward at the building. It has been quite a whirlwind of a week, but also a lot of fun.
Drew seems to be making some modest progress with his speech. This last week we took him to speech therapy for the first time. Dane has learned to ride his big wheel so fast that he can kick the back end out when rounding a corner. Don’t tell his Mom, but I think we may have another Brower that has the need for speed!
That’s all for now. Sorry for not calling as much as I should to check up on everyone. Love, Mark and Meagan.
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